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Auto sector valuation premium over Nifty falls from Sept 27 peak. Time to press the gasoline pedal?

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Auto sector’s valuation premium over the Nifty has dropped to twenty% from 37% on the September 27, 2024 peak, due to a pointy fall of 27% within the auto shares versus 16% fall within the Nifty throughout this era. The auto sector present price-to-earnings (P/E) a number of based mostly on FY26E EPS stands at 22.4X versus Nifty’s 18.5X, in accordance with a notice revealed by SBI Securities.

Nifty Auto’s P/E a number of on the lifetime excessive of 27,696.10 stood at 30 as towards Nifty’s P/E a number of of 21.9 at an all-time excessive degree of 26,277.35, the SBI Securities notice mentioned.

The autumn is computed on the index degree and never on the inventory degree.

The brokerage additionally analysed P/E multiples of main auto and auto ancillary shares like Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tata Motors, TVS Motor Firm, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, Ashoik Leyland, Uno Minda and Samvardhan Motherson and every of those shares reported vital climbdown of their P/E a number of.


Additionally Learn: As much as 33% month-to-month fall! Battered & bruised IT, auto, pharma shares have a Trump hand

Foot off the gasoline pedal

The lackluster commerce within the auto shares over the previous 6 months has been attributable to a mixture of occasions. One of many causes is the beneath par Q3 earnings by the auto pack.

In a brokerage notice, Motilal Oswal Monetary Providers (MOFSL) highlighted weak earnings by the auto firms. “The 3Q efficiency was weak with a 2% YoY dip in revenue. Administration commentary on FY26 demand was unsure, with indicators of moderation throughout segments, whereas the commentary appeared extra optimistic about rural demand outpacing city demand,” the MOFSL notice mentioned.

Whereas the general bearish sentiments weighed on the markets, for home auto shares, Tesla’s entry into India additionally stoked worry. The US electrical car big has finalised a deal to open its first showroom in Mumbai’s Bandra Kurla Advanced (BKC), in what might be the best lease lease for a industrial area, a TOI report mentioned.

Gurmeet Chadha, CIO & Managing Companion at Full Circle Consultants, believes the market response is exaggerated: “Markets are overreacting, however this can be a time to have a look at some names the place the response has been extra adverse simply from the information viewpoint. Any individual like a Tesla coming will increase the premiumisation of the automotive story. It’s a win-win if an innovator comes.”

Chadha’s view aligns with historic tendencies—at any time when a serious world participant enters a brand new market, shares of incumbents initially decline earlier than stabilizing. Tesla’s arrival may truly speed up the adoption of electrical autos (EVs) in India, benefiting native automakers already investing closely within the section.

Previous to this, the Indian authorities had lower import responsibility not only for huge bikes with engines above 1,600cc, however even for small ones. This transfer is being seen to up the competitors within the home marketplace for the premium section.

Additionally Learn: Can Nifty break its 5 month shedding streak in March? Right here’s what knowledge suggests

SBI Securities sees the long run progress story intact because it sees the bulls retired damage, however not out. It has listed a clutch of things that might act as tailwinds for the sector. Amongst them are, earnings tax cuts in Price range 2025 together with price lower from the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI).

The latter had lower coverage price by 25 bps within the February MPC and expectations are for an additional 50 bps lower this yr. Furthermore, rural restoration may increase volumes of entry and mid degree bikes and automobiles in addition to tractors.

The ban on plying of autos older than 15 years in Delhi may drive substitute demand particularly within the CV section, it famous.M&M, TVS Motor, Escorts Kubota and Uno Minda stay its high funding concepts on this sector, which it mentioned must be collected over the following 3-4 months.

(Disclaimer: Suggestions, strategies, views and opinions given by the consultants are their very own. These don’t characterize the views of Financial Instances)

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